Kenya's High-Stakes Gamble: Will Raila Odinga Succeed in the AU Chair Race?

Kenya is preparing for a significant political moment on the African continent as veteran politician Raila Odinga steps up to campaign for the position of Chair of the African Union Commission (AUC). On Citizen's TV's Sunday Live, Ambassador Martin Kimani shared his insights into Odinga's candidacy, the challenges Kenya faces, and the broader implications of this high-stakes election scheduled for February 2025. Below is a detailed breakdown of this conversation, which covers Odinga’s campaign strategy, the role of the African Union, and Kenya’s diplomatic efforts on the continent.

Who is Ambassador Martin Kimani? Insights on Raila's AU Chair Bid from a Diplomat

Ambassador Martin Kimani, a former ambassador and former Kenya's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, appeared on Citizen TV’s Sunday Live yesterday, offering in-depth perspectives on Kenya’s African Union Commission (AUC) bid. A seasoned diplomat and the current Executive Director at the Center for International Cooperation at NYU, Kimani discussed the intricacies of Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the AUC chairmanship. Amb. Kimani was also a president of the UN Security Council in October 2021 when Kenya got a non-permanent seat.

The Ambassador highlighted the challenges Kenya faces, especially in rallying continental support for Odinga, while sharing his expert analysis of the future of African diplomacy. His insight comes at a critical time as Kenya seeks to assert its influence on the global stage through strategic positions like the AUC chair.

Kenya's High-Stakes Gamble: Raila Odinga's Campaign for the African Union Commission Chair

Raila Odinga, a household name in Kenyan politics, has set his sights on a new frontier: the African Union Commission. After decades in Kenyan politics, Odinga is now focused on influencing the broader African agenda, marking a strategic shift from local politics to a continental stage. His campaign was launched with much fanfare, and attended by several East African leaders, ambassadors, and political figures.

Odinga, a seasoned politician with many years of experience, including a stint as Kenya’s Prime Minister, is up against strong opponents like Djibouti's Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmud Ali Yusuf, and former Mauritanian Foreign Minister Anil Kumar Singh. Even so, this race isn’t just about personal ambition; it’s also a test of Kenya’s diplomatic strength and ability to rally support across the continent.

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Challenges Kenya Faces: Will Raila Odinga Succeed in the AU Chair Race?

Kenya’s bid for the AUC Chair position faces significant hurdles. One key challenge is the issue of the Sahrawi Republic, whose recognition is a contentious topic in African politics. The Sahrawi Republic, officially known as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, is a partially recognized state claiming sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. Morocco also contests the region; leading to long-standing territorial disputes and diplomatic tensions.

Morocco, a strong opponent of Sahrawi independence, wields considerable influence, and Odinga’s stance on the matter may not sit well with many North African and Francophone countries. Moreover, Odinga’s support for the Sahrawi people’s self-determination has been seen as alienating several influential states in the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). The OIC, for this reason and others, has already thrown its support behind Djibouti's candidate.

Kenya has attempted this bid before, and it didn't go well. In 2017, Kenya's bid for the position faced criticism for being overconfident and disorganized. This time, Kenya will need a more cohesive and strategic campaign to gain the support of member states. Odinga’s language fluency and potential diplomatic gaps were also highlighted—as areas that need attention to ensure success.

The Diplomatic Game: Rallying Behind Odinga's AU Chair Bid

Ambassador Kimani stressed that the success of Odinga's campaign depends heavily on Kenya’s diplomatic efforts and resource investment. Countries vote based on a complex set of motivations—regime security, financial incentives, and relations with global powers like China and the U.S. As such, Kenya will need to deploy seasoned diplomats and leverage political capital across the continent if Odinga's bid is to succeed.

While Odinga’s personal attributes—such as his political resilience, his academic background in war studies, and his long-standing commitment to public service—could work in his favor, the race is about more than individual qualifications. The AUC Chair role doesn't represent any one country's interests directly—but rather reflects continental diplomacy and the ability to push forward collective African goals.

A Continental Debate: The Relevance of the African Union

The African Union plays a critical role in shaping the future of Africa, and the election of its Chair has wide-reaching geopolitical implications. In the interview, Kimani discussed the AU’s relevance, especially in conflict resolution and peacekeeping efforts. Kenya, for example, has been deeply involved in conflict mediation on the continent, which could bolster its case for Odinga’s election.

Kimani also mentioned the AU's position on global issues like Ukraine, North African conflicts, and relations with the European Union, which remain central to the Union’s relevance. As part of its campaign, Kenya is positioning itself as a mediator and peacemaker, leaning into its experience in diplomatic interventions, notably its involvement in Haiti, where Kenyan peacekeepers were recently deployed.

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The African Union’s Disconnect with Gen Z

Despite making up nearly 73% of Africa’s population, the African Union has struggled to effectively engage with younger generations, particularly Gen Z. Ambassador Martin Kimani highlighted this gap, remarking, “There is a need for the AU to connect with young Africans, as their involvement is key to the future of the continent.”

This disconnect poses a threat to the Union’s relevance, as many young people feel excluded from policy discussions that directly impact their future. To truly progress, the AU must find ways to actively involve and inspire Africa’s youth. Failure to do so, more African countries will likely witness youth uprisings such as the Gen Z protests in Kenya.

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Kenya’s Role in Haiti: A Test of Global Diplomacy for Kenya

Kenya’s engagement in Haiti started under President Kenyatta and has continued under President Ruto. This deployment has seen Kenyan police officers working on the ground in an attempt to stabilize the politically fragile nation. As Kimani pointed out, however, Kenyan forces have not received sufficient support from the international community, highlighting a broader issue of resource allocation in global peacekeeping efforts.

The ambassador argued that, despite Kenya’s close relations with powerful global actors, such as its NATO allies, adequate resources have not been provided for the mission in Haiti. This underlines the need for Kenya to ensure that its peacekeeping missions, such as those in Haiti, are given the necessary support and that mission stakeholders' political and financial responsibility is emphasized. The US, one such stakeholder, has failed to come through adequately for Kenya, especially in funding for the Haiti mission. US Ambassador to Kenya, Meg Whitman recently made assurances that funds will be released and pledged that the US will rally for funding from the international community.

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Odinga’s Candidacy: A Potential Turning Point

While the upcoming AUC election presents challenges, it also offers opportunities for Kenya to demonstrate its diplomatic prowess on the African stage. Odinga’s candidacy, although not a guarantee of success, serves as a symbol of Kenya’s broader ambitions within African and in global politics.

Kimani made it clear that Odinga’s success will depend on Kenya’s ability to deploy resources, engage seasoned diplomats, and address the delicate balance of African geopolitics. He emphasized that a victory would not only elevate Odinga’s political profile but also bolster Kenya’s standing as a major player in African diplomacy.

Watch Amb. Kimani's interview on Citizen TV. Courtesy of RMS.

The Road Ahead for Kenya and Odinga in Kenya's High-Stakes AU Chairmanship Gamble

As Raila Odinga sets his sights on the AUC Chair, Kenya faces the task of navigating complex diplomatic waters. The bid, though ambitious, is not without significant challenges. Even so, with careful planning, adequate resources, and strong diplomatic engagement, Odinga's candidacy could mark a new chapter for both Kenya and the African Union.

Ambassador Kimani's insights underscore the importance of viewing the AUC Chair election as not just about individual aspirations but also broader African politics and diplomacy. Kenya’s experience in peacekeeping, conflict mediation, and diplomacy on the continent offers a solid foundation on which to build Odinga’s campaign. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on much more than Kenya’s past efforts; it will hinge on the country's ability to adapt to and navigate the current geopolitical landscape.

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