Conspiracy Theories and Extremism: Is a Civil War Looming in America?
Rise of Militia: Is a civil war looming in America? We look into the radicalization of military veterans in America and the risk it poses for a civil war.
America has seen a lot of polarization and political divisiveness in the last decade. So much so that there have popped up militia groups out to "defend the constitution". Fueled by conspiracy theories, their actions have increasingly become violent, culminating in the Jan 6 Insurrection at the Capitol. In this article we delve into the difficult question: is a civil war looming in America?
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Conspiracy Theories and Extremism: How Conspiracy Theories Have Helped Form Militias in America
Since 2016 when Trump became President of the United States, there have been numerous conspiracy theories that have led to the formation of multiple militia groups. These groups have used absurd conspiracy theories to radicalize vulnerable groups in the country in a push to not only grow their numbers but also drive their ideological agenda.
The Role of Conspiracy Theories in Extremism
Conspiracy theories are, essentially, sets of beliefs alleging that a secret group or cabal is conspiring against the masses [trying to control them] to perform a certain action or influence a certain idea or way of life.
In essence, conspiracy theories are theories born to blame external and often powerful entities for the problems of the masses. As such, these theories rely on demonizing a certain group such as the political class. The idea is to drive a narrative trying to explain that what's wrong with society is to be blamed on these groups and that they are conspiring to perpetuate these issues and in a way, control or manipulate the population.
The Role of Conspiracy Theories in Radicalization
Conspiracy theories in America are, therefore, often used to radicalize members of society by assuring them that their problems are only to be blamed on this cabal of politicians; who have come together to conspire on ways to control the masses for their benefit.
Despite most of these theories being very absurd and often ludicrous, advancement in digital communication technologies has helped them spread and reach even more vulnerable populations; who end up radicalized and believing these theories have a basis in truth. The conspiracy theories work by manufacturing skewed and divergent 'truths', far from what a normal unexposed person would regard as the truth.
Preying on the Vulnerable: The Radicalization of Military Veterans in America
One way that conspiracy theories have been used to prey on the vulnerable is by their use in the radicalization of military veterans in America. When one signs up for the army and heads to combat, they see so much death and destruction that they are bewildered when they come back home after their service has ended. When such individuals lack a proper support system or adequate facilitation from the government, they become vulnerable to recruitment by a militia group and can be radicalized to believe conspiracy theories are based on facts.
The Dangers of Failing to Rehabilitate Military Veterans
Unfortunately, military vets are often left untended by the government especially when it comes to rehabilitation in society and even in terms of mental health and mental health care facilitation. As a result, militias can take advantage of them. Moreover, with the prevalence of social media, all a vulnerable vet would need to do is click on a digital ad and be sucked into this alternate world where a politician can be anything from a 'demon child-eater' to a 'vampire shapeshifter'.
David Mania
Read more on mental health here
It is often the case that veterans come back home feeling out of touch with the realities of daily civilian life. They find that their ideals have been challenged by their experiences while on deployment, and will likely look for a purpose and mission. Others will feel that they have been betrayed by a government that led them to their death - to fight 'forever wars'. You can imagine what the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan felt like for vets who lost their friends and family members to the Afghan War.
David Mania
Read more about the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan here
Armed, Dangerous, and Radicalized
The end result is that military vets who could have otherwise been rehabilitated and played a role in the advancement of society, end up believing that they need to 'protect the nation' from the evil cabal who's out to 'control' everyone. Military vets are men and women who have been trained to kill and they all take an oath to "protect and serve" America and the Constitution from all enemies "foreign and domestic".
Militia groups are able to take advantage of this oath and hoodwink the vets into believing that they need to continue defending their country from a domestic enemy who they can term to be a rival militia group or followers of a political party or leader that they do not like.
The Veterans' Need for Camaraderie and a Purpose
When an individual retires from the army, they feel out of place when they return to a society where they find the people indisciplined, highly opinionated, and incapable of protecting themselves; or even 'hapless' for the lack of a better word. A military veteran will find it very difficult to fit in this world and will miss the camaraderie they shared with their colleagues in the military. To them, the men and women who they fight alongside and see death and all manners of horrors with - out on the battlefield - are their family.
Purpose and Mission
Therefore, joining militias, for them, will feel like a continuation of that camaraderie and they will feel that they will be incorporated into this 'family' of like-minded individuals. A militia will also give a vet purpose and a mission; and no matter how absurd or deluded that mission may seem to the rest of us, getting a chance to be with their 'brothers' undertaking military-like activities is what is familiar to a vet. As such, they are likely to come into the militia group simply to feel like they are in a family and have a purpose and mission for their lives.
Patriotic, Skilled, and Committed: Why Military Vets Are Particularly Vulnerable to Extremism
On the other hand, the militias will target vets because they know vets are committed, highly trained, and very patriotic. As such, a group such as the 'Proud Boys' will have the 'relativity of form' for what a military vet - who's been thrown back into bewildering civilian life - would be looking for. The failure of the government to adequately cater to the employment needs of vets also helps as vets - who have all these combat skills and training but lack jobs - will be quite tempted and susceptible to falling for an invitation to join a militia group.
The Role of Militias in Voter Suppression
Once the militia has recruited vets and radicalized them, they will then give them missions that align with their particular goals. For instance, the Proud Boys will send some of their members to majority-black communities on election day and instruct them to keep black voters away from the polls. A different group will urge its members to get into electoral councils and occupy electoral positions, to ensure that they push the group's agenda from within. Consequently, more and more people, more often blacks and other minority groups, will be inadequately represented in the polls.
Where Do Militias Get their Power and Influence From?
Furthermore, militia groups will enjoy support from leaders such as Trump, and even local Trump-aligned legislators who'll enact laws that suppress the votes of the minorities. The reasons these conspiracy-fed militia groups end up having such an effect on the politics of the country include the following. They are well-connected politically. They have a lot of eligible recruits as more and more people retire from military service. Additionally, they enjoy the freedom of digital communication.
Online forums, social networking, and digital communication channels allow them an avenue to seek out and recruit members, share information, and communicate directives.
David Mania
How Radical Militias Use Military Service as a Source of Legitimacy
On top of their power and influence, militias will draw legitimacy from their leadership being military veterans themselves. These leaders will convince their recruits that they have been on the battlefield and they understand what it means to experience war due to state failure. These leaders will also portray themselves as patriots out to continue their service in line with their military oath. As such, recruits will feel they are in the right place, with the right people, doing the right thing.
Despite their goodness of heart and their patriotic intentions to defend and protect their country and constitution, they will often be misled to support these conspiracy notions of a 'crime family', for instance, when referring to Joe Biden. With these factors in place, what's to stop them from storming the Capitol, for instance, and undertaking an insurrection whose parallel America has not seen?
Taking Orders without Questioning: The Way of the Soldier
Military veterans are individuals who have been taught to take orders without questioning. Therefore, when they are indoctrinated into a militia group and their leader tells them to attack the Capitol, they'll take up arms and head to Washington to do just that. Obeying orders without question is the way of the soldier. As such, they become particularly dangerous to the way of life of ordinary Americans, the democracy of the nation, and the political system as established.
Militias Against Democracy: The Big Lie and Its Use to Radicalize Trump Supporters
When Trump encourages his followers to storm the Capitol, he not only legitimizes the act to them but also encourages the dissolution of the notion that America is a democracy and that those duly elected are the ones who should lead.
What we today call 'the Big Lie' is essentially Trump's carefully constructed conspiracy theory to radicalize his followers into not only distrusting the electoral process but also discrediting its outcomes and those elected. Trump does this knowing well what he's doing, he most certainly doesn't believe his own lies.
Inadvertently, Trump also makes his followers increasingly vulnerable to targeting by militia groups. His followers are easily likely to be recruited to join groups such as 'Q-Anon' and the 'Proud Boys', among others. They then will become radicalized themselves, with the help of conspiracy theories propagated and supported by their leader of choice: Donald Trump.
David Mania
Read more about the nature of Donald Trump
The Risk of an Armed Uprising Resulting From Conspiracy-Fueled Extremism
As a consequence of conspiracy-fueled extremism, more and more vulnerable groups are susceptible to being led into initiating and partaking in an armed uprising. In essence, a mix of heavily armed militias and Trump supporters can be led to maim and kill elected officials, for instance, in support of what they believe is resistance to the usurpation of their fundamental right to elect their leaders via election fraud.
The Right to Arms and The Resulting Proliferation of Firearms in the United States
With the right to own and wield arms enshrined in the American constitution, such an outcome is more likely than not. Recent data indicates that the share of American households "owning at least one firearm" is anywhere between 37 and 47 percent [Source: Statista]. Another study indicates that "48% of Republicans reported owning at least one gun, and 66 percent said that they lived with at least one firearm". On the other hand, it says "only 20% of Democrats reported owning at least one gun, with 31% saying that they lived with at least one firearm". [Source: Statista].
With these numbers, it is safe to estimate that there are at least a hundred million guns - and other types of firearms - in the hands of Americans today. If the militia has 100,000 members, for instance, that is more than 100,000 firearms ready to be used to take up arms and fight the government. Isn't that what we call a civil war?
What's stopping militias from stockpiling weapons in readiness to 'take their country back?'
The Notion of 'Taking Back America'
According to a projection by Census.Gov, "1 in 3 Americans, or 32 percent of the population, is projected to be a race other than White" by 2060 [Source: Census.Gov]. What this means is that by 2060, White Americans will be the minority in the U.S. Consequently, there will be radicalized groups feeling like their native country is being taken away from them.
Radicalized White veterans and Trump supporters could easily be led to believe that immigration serves to marginalize them by making them the minority in their own country, taking their jobs, intermarrying with their kids, and eventually, taking away their way of life.
The danger with this is that it sets the stage for very lethal 'us-vs-them' ideologies and narratives pitting militias against minorities i.e., narratives and ideologies fueled by racism and white supremacy. Groups vulnerable to extremism and radicalization will likely regard the idea of their country being ripped from their hands as repugnant. Furthermore, as we have seen, they are able, willing, trained, skilled, and could be radicalized enough to take up arms.
The Role of White Supremacy
White Supremacy groups have already started peddling such ideology and are increasingly using the idea of a 'White-minority' as a tool to recruit vulnerable groups into their ranks. White supremacy is rooted in the belief that the white race is superior to all other races, has the rightful claim to America, and should remain 'pure'.
These dangerous notions mean that increasingly, more and more of these groups will use the tools at their disposal to call for an armed resistance to immigration and governments they feel are propagating the displacement or replacement of Whites as the dominant and majority race.
Rise of the Militia: Is a Civil War Looming in America?
Looking at it this way - and with recent developments and the continued evolution of armed militia into a more active role in resistance against the government - the prospect of a civil war is not hard to conceptualize. What makes the prospect of a looming civil war particularly worrying is that these militias are in a large part comprised of military veterans.
The people we fear could go to war with the government are the same people the government has trained and parted skills to. Military veterans are more perilous as adversaries due to the following. They are experts in the use of a wide range of commercially available firearms. They have well-honed expertise in intelligence gathering. Through radicalization, they believe that fighting the government would be in service to the country they love. Therefore, seeing their actions as protecting America from "domestic" enemies as they swore in their oath.
Military veterans are also particularly dangerous as adversaries due to their 'inside' knowledge of how the military works, what military training encompasses, and what methods are used to gather intelligence and defeat adversaries.
A Government Fighting Itself
The end result is a government caught between fighting a monster of its own creation or letting the country descend into anarchy. After investing so much into the 'war machine', it coming back to fight them could prove a civil war not only nearly impossible to win, but also one presenting a moral quandary. The government would be ultimately forced to fight itself.
One could say that the government has the advantage of resources and systems to quell an armed uprising but where do their resources come from? Where does the government get its money? The people. The people are the ones who fund the government through taxes.
Therefore, in a society where more and more people are being led into believing conspiracy theories, where the political class cannot combine heads to find practical solutions, and where racism and white supremacy are increasingly being propagated, what would prevent a government from crumbling when it has to fight a civil war against its people?
What Should Be Done to Avoid an American Civil War?
The necessary steps, as it stands, is to first go after the actual militias by enacting legislation that allows them to be prosecuted as terrorist groups. Unfortunately, America lacks regulation that particularly regards domestic acts of terrorism by citizens as just that, terrorism.
A band-aid would be enacting regulations that would allow militia groups to be categorized as international terrorist groups hence salvaging the situation short-term. It would allow for a coming together of legislators to draft up, debate, and pass a law tackling the issue of domestic terrorism by citizens. There have also been calls to bring back military conscription to help socialize people of all backgrounds.
David Mania
Read more about the draft here
Second, the government should go after the tools that are used to disseminate extremist propaganda. By curtailing the ability of these groups to recruit using digital media, they are forced out of their digital havens and into the real world.
Third, the government should find a way to undertake mass civil education, returning the country to a specific set of beliefs. These should be beliefs such as the shared love for the country and the enrichment of a nation's identity - and strength - through multiculturalism. Even more, cultivating an understanding of the basic fact that we are all human and despite sharing different backgrounds, we all want the same thing; to live a prosperous, peaceful, and fulfilled life in the country we love and call home.
